Climate change and vulnerability of the livelihoods of rural families in three municipalities of Madriz, Nicaragua, 2010-2022

Abstract

The purpose of the research was to analyze the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the livelihoods of rural families in the face of climate change in three municipalities of the department of Madriz (Totogalpa, Palacagüina and Telpaneca) located in the dry corridor of the country. The assessment of the impact, vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 was taken as the main theoretical reference. The methodology used was mixed, quantitative and qualitative, using the survey as the main instrument and applied to rural families, in addition to a focus group, interviews with territorial actors and a case study. The variables evaluated were exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index, broken down into 62 indicators. A variance analysis was performed to determine statistical differences between the indicators and descriptive statistics to determine the degree of vulnerability. The results show that the territories differ statistically in 80% of the indicators. In addition, the average vulnerability to climate change is x̄ 63.19 for Totogalpa, x̄ 62.94 for Palacagüina and x̄ 66.05 for Telpaneca, the latter territory being the one with the largest population segment (86.44%) in a high degree of vulnerability (61-80). The lack of water is the main problem that affects the majority of families in the three municipalities (98.29%).